Title: Endogenous learning in climate-energy-economic models – an inventory of key uncertainties

Authors: Bob van der Zwaan, Ad Seebregts

Addresses: Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge MA 02138, USA. ' Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies Department, P.O. Box 37154, 1030 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: This paper gives an overview of uncertainties related to endogenous learning as observed in integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global warming, both for bottom-up and top-down climate-energy-economic models. A classification is formulated by which uncertainties can be evaluated, and through which one can distinguish between modelling, methodological and parameter uncertainties. We emphasise that the analysis of uncertainties in IAM exercises of global warming is essential for both scientific and policy-making related reasons. At present, proper analyses of the sensitivity and robustness characteristics of modelling results are often omitted. Our main conclusion, and recommendation, is that in future IAM analyses of climate change, both for the benefit of scientists and public policy decision makers, the presence of different kinds of uncertainties should be appropriately recognised, classified, quantified and reported.

Keywords: learning-by-doing; learning curves; endogenous technologies; integrated assessment; sensitivity analysis; global warming; climate-energy-economic models.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2004.004591

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2004 Vol.2 No.1/2, pp.130 - 141

Published online: 26 May 2004 *

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