Title: A grey system approach for forecasting disposable computer waste quantities: a case study of Delhi

Authors: Preeti Loonker Kothari, Poonam Ahluwalia, Arvind K. Nema

Addresses: Degremont Limited, Unitech Business Park, Tower-A, South City-I, Gurgaon, 122001, India. ' TATA Consulting Engineers Limited, 17-18, Zamrudpur Commercial Complex, New Delhi, 110017, India. ' Department of Civil Engineering, I.I.T. Delhi, New Delhi, 110016, India

Abstract: An optimised long-term planning for the management of disposable computer waste is a dire need of present owing to the exponentially growing waste quantities. Assessment of waste inventory is one of the first steps in the planning process. An efficient planning needs assessment of waste generation quantities and for long term planning, forecasting future quantities is of prime importance. This study presents a grey approach for forecasting computer waste quantities. The approach has been applied to a case study of computer waste generation in Delhi. Based on grey relational analysis, the key variables (personal computer penetration rate, population, gross domestic product, and gross national income per capita) were identified and their effect on computer waste generation was determined. Generalised regression neural network was used to minimise errors in the forecasted waste quantities.

Keywords: computer waste; forecasting; grey system theory; grey relational analysis; GRA; waste management; waste generation quantities; long term planning; India; personal computers; PCs; generalised regression NNs; GRNNs; neural networks.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2011.042300

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2011 Vol.2 No.3, pp.203 - 218

Published online: 03 Sep 2011 *

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