Title: Simulation application in project risk management for infrastructure transportation project

Authors: Debasis Sarkar

Addresses: Department of Construction and Project Management, Faculty of Technology, CEPT University, Ahmedabad-380009, India

Abstract: Project risk management primarily comprises of cost and schedule uncertainties and risks. These risks can be assessed or measured in terms of likelihood, impact and consequences. For an infrastructure transportation project, simulation has widespread applications to make the project risk management model more realistic. Monte Carlo computer simulation takes into account the effects of near critical paths becoming critical. In general, simulation allows the use of variety of probability distributions besides beta distribution, including distributions based on historical data. These generated project durations are more likely to represent the range of times to be expected. In this paper case study of construction of underground metro rail corridor MC 1B (Delhi metro rail) has been considered for development of the project risk management model and Monte Carlo simulation has been applied to make the proposed model more realistic.

Keywords: project risk management; project organisation; Monte Carlo simulation; underground metro; transport infrastructure; underground rail corridors; India; modelling; construction projects; construction industry.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPOM.2011.042039

International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 2011 Vol.3 No.3/4, pp.374 - 392

Received: 17 Mar 2010
Accepted: 14 Aug 2010

Published online: 21 Aug 2011 *

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