Title: Risk factor analysis of the Chinese building energy efficiency market using system dynamics methodology

Authors: Patrick X.W. Zou, Xuan Qin, Guomin Zhang, Shouqing Wang

Addresses: Faculty of The Built Environment, The University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia. ' College of Civil Engineering, Huaqiao University, Fujian, 362021, China; Faculty of the Built Environment, The University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia. ' School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. ' Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

Abstract: The agenda for improving China|s building energy efficiency is not progressing smoothly, mainly due to many risks associated in the China|s building energy efficiency market mechanism. This paper employs a system dynamics methodology to analyse these risks, by dividing the risks in the building energy efficiency market into six subsystems: laws and regulations; standards and specifications; economy; technology; policy and education. The paper further analyses the relationship between these subsystems and their relationships with the overall system (building energy efficiency market) by establishing and drawing the causal relationships and feedback loops. Through a qualitative analysis on the positive and negative feedback loops of the system, potential risks were ascertained, and new perspectives established for the implementation and monitoring of risk tackling strategies. It is expected that the results presented in this paper will help decision makers to identify the risk factors and their interdependent relationship in a complex context system involving law, economy, policy, market, education and technology issues.

Keywords: risk factors; risk assessment; building energy efficiency; system dynamics; qualitative modelling; China; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPOM.2011.042038

International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 2011 Vol.3 No.3/4, pp.352 - 373

Received: 08 May 2021
Accepted: 12 May 2021

Published online: 21 Aug 2011 *

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