Title: Default prediction of small and medium-sized enterprises with industry effects

Authors: Frieda Rikkers, Andre E. Thibeault

Addresses: Formerly at: Nyenrode Business University, The Netherlands. ' Vlerick Centre for Financial Services Management, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School, Reep 1, BE-9000 Gent, Belgium

Abstract: Financial statements vary between industries. Therefore, economic intuition suggests that industry effects should be an important component in bankruptcy prediction; however, in previous academic literature on default prediction, not much attention has been paid to these effects. In this study a number of questions concerning credit risk modelling of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and industry are answered. The results indicate that financial ratios of SMEs differ between industries. Industry, measured by the weight-of-evidence (WoE), is a significant variable in default prediction of SMEs. Rating models designed for a specific industry (trade, service, or manufacturing) contain other variables and/or variables have other weights than for a generic PD model. Industry specific default prediction models perform slightly better than the generic model with industry effects, except for the service industry, where the industry specific model considerably outperforms the generic PD model.

Keywords: default prediction; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; industry effects; credit risk modelling; Basel II; bankruptcy prediction; financial ratios.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBAAF.2011.041455

International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, 2011 Vol.3 No.2/3, pp.207 - 231

Published online: 23 Jul 2011 *

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