Title: Forward patent citations as predictors for patent valuation

Authors: M. Hosein Fallah, Elliot Fishman, Richard R. Reilly

Addresses: Howe School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA. ' Howe School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA. ' Howe School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

Abstract: It has long been understood that highly cited patents tend to be more commercially valuable than patents that are not frequently cited. Early identification of highly cited patents would enable a technology manager to concentrate commercialisation resources on the most promising assets in a technology portfolio. There is therefore a need for predictive models of forward citation counts. We propose and test a theory that early forward citation observations can be a leading indicator of the future citations over the lifespan of a patent. The predictive model presented herein has implications for patent valuation, patent portfolio management and qualitative patent ranking programmes.

Keywords: patent valuation; technological forecasting; S-curve; Gompertz curve; predictive models; patent citations; predictors; highly cited patents; commercial value; frequent citations; technology managers; commercialisation resources; promising assets; technology portfolios; citation counts; forward citations; future citations; patent lifespans; patent portfolios; qualitative rankings; ranking programmes; intellectual property management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIPM.2011.041081

International Journal of Intellectual Property Management, 2011 Vol.4 No.3, pp.165 - 178

Available online: 30 Jun 2011 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article