Title: Companies in rough seas: predictors of early insolvency risk in the Romanian IT industry

Authors: Miruna Mazurencu Marinescu, Peter Nijkamp

Addresses: Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economics, Calea Dorobanţilor nr. 15-17, sector 1, Bucharest 010552, Romania. ' Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Department of Spatial Economics, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1985, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: The motivation of this paper is to identify the causes of low-performance companies that are operating in the information technology sector, which is seen as a key driver of the Romanian economy. A model is designed to extract the productivity distribution of the sector|s companies based on a data set from the Romanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Through the statistical analysis of this particular sub-sample of low-performing firms, important characteristics can be derived and tested for significance. In our study, a benchmark value for productivity will also be identified that can offer an early warning indication for potential problem zones when assessing a newly founded company.

Keywords: insolvency risk; predictors; benchmark values; ICT industry; information technology; communications technology; Romania; low-performance companies; productivity distribution; Romanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry; statistical analysis; low-performing firms; early warnings; problem zones; potential problems; new business ventures; foresight; innovation policies; innovative business resources; economic development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2011.040070

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2011 Vol.7 No.1/2/3, pp.129 - 141

Published online: 13 May 2011 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article