Title: A multiattribute decision support system with imprecise input and time-dependent modelling

Authors: Sixto Rios-Insua, Antonio Jimenez, Alfonso Mateos, Tomas Prieto

Addresses: Department of Artificial Intelligence, School of Computer Science, Madrid Technical University, Campus de Montegancedo s/n, 28660 Madrid, Spain. ' Department of Artificial Intelligence, School of Computer Science, Madrid Technical University, Campus de Montegancedo s/n, 28660 Madrid, Spain. ' Department of Artificial Intelligence, School of Computer Science, Madrid Technical University, Campus de Montegancedo s/n, 28660 Madrid, Spain. ' Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Complutense University of Madrid, Plaza de las Ciencias s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain

Abstract: We describe a modelling and problem-solving process supported by a decision support system, which accounts for the possibility of different models depending on factors like multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainty about the consequences of the decisions, imprecision concerning the decision maker|s preferences and decisions with consequences that span several time periods. This decision support system addresses all the above aspects, which can be simultaneously taken into account in real decision making problems, by considering an objective hierarchy that models appropriate time preferences. The analysis is focused on judgemental inputs, imprecise scaling factors on objectives and imprecise scalar utility functions on the attributes of the hierarchy for the purpose of aggregation, if appropriate, in a scalar or vectorial global additive utility function, which can incorporate discount factors to evaluate the timestream vectors. The decision support system includes an optimisation method based on the simulated annealing metaheuristic, as well as a multiparametric sensitivity analysis as an aid for identifying the optimal alternative.

Keywords: decision analysis; decision support system; imprecision; intertemporal decision; multiattribute utility; simulated annealing; time-dependent objective tree.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2003.003981

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2003 Vol.3 No.3/4, pp.230 - 250

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

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