Title: Moore's law and the economics of semiconductor price trends

Authors: Kenneth Flamm

Addresses: Technology and Public Policy Program, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA

Abstract: This paper constructs an analytical framework for understanding the technical origins and economic implications of distinctive patterns of innovation in semiconductors known as Moore|s Law. The history of Moore|s Law predictions is first reviewed. These predictions, coupled with additional assumptions, yield predictions of the cost or price of functionality on a semiconductor integrated circuit. Changes in historical declines in semiconductor prices are shown to be related to evolution in key technical parameters over successive generations of manufacturing technology. Significant changes in the organisation of semiconductor industry R&D in the 1990s appear linked to acceleration in the pace of innovation.

Keywords: semiconductors; innovation; industrial organisation; prices; R&D.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2003.003885

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2003 Vol.3 No.2, pp.127 - 141

Published online: 28 Jan 2004 *

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