Title: Improving hurricane disaster preparedness: models for optimal reallocation of hospital capacity

Authors: Jomon Aliyas Paul, Rajan Batta

Addresses: Department of Economics, Finance and Quantitative Analysis, Michael J. Coles College of Business, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA. ' Industrial and Systems Engineering, 438 Bell Hall, University at Buffalo (SUNY), Buffalo, NY 14260, USA

Abstract: This research presents significant improvements to the hospital capacity planning models for hurricane disaster proposed by Paul and Batta. Firstly, we develop a model that reallocates hospital capacities taking into account the effect of casualty severity on medical care demands and travel time to hospitals on casualty outcomes. Secondly, travel time to hospitals, a key input to the model, is estimated using a stochastic simulation. Thirdly, in order to meet with challenges that arise as disaster evolves, we develop an algorithm that dynamically updates the pre-disaster plans to post-disaster reality. The algorithm evaluates prior decisions by dynamically updating the hospital status, travel times and status of the casualty clusters. We demonstrate the application of models in developing pre-disaster plans (hospital capacity and ambulance reallocation) through a case study on New Orleans. In addition, we show the application of the algorithm for post-disaster planning via illustrative examples.

Keywords: applied optimisation; simulation; capacity planning; catastrophe planning; capacity management; hurricane disaster preparedness; modelling; optimal reallocation; hospital capacity; healthcare management; emergency management; casualty severity; medical care demands; travel time; pre-disaster plans; post-disaster reality; ambulance reallocation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2011.038584

International Journal of Operational Research, 2011 Vol.10 No.2, pp.194 - 213

Published online: 14 Feb 2015 *

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