Title: A case of forecast-based technology evaluation and its implications

Authors: Byoung Soo Kim

Addresses: Technology Foresight Centre, Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), 12F Dongwon Industry Bldg., 275 Yangjae-dong, Seocho-gu – Seoul 137-130, Korea

Abstract: As the importance of a national catch-up strategy, science and innovation policy, and forecasting the future is emphasised, a more advanced method of technology evaluation is needed for the emerging countries including South Korea. The methodology of forecast-based technology evaluation introduced by KISTEP consists of the Delphi survey, data analysis of papers and patents, technology growth curve fitting, and so on. Each nation|s technological changes can be compared by using technology growth curves fitted from the data of the Delphi survey. With these results, R&D decision-makers can forecast the near future from a technology-level perspective.

Keywords: technology evaluation; foresight; forecasts; forecasting; catch-up strategies; science; innovation; government policies; emerging countries; South Korea; KISTEP; Delphi surveys; data analysis; patents; growth curves; technological change; R&D; research and development; decision making; near future; technology-level perspectives; technology intelligence; technology planning.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2010.038227

International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2010 Vol.6 No.4, pp.317 - 325

Published online: 24 Jan 2011 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article