Title: Impact of terror incidents on the Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India: an econometric exploration

Authors: Manas Bhattacharya, Kaushik Basu

Addresses: Ministry of Tourism, Government of India, New Delhi 110011, India. ' Centre for Economic Studies and Policy (CESP), Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Nagarbhavi, Bangalore 560072, Karnataka, India

Abstract: Important tourist locations and gateways in India have suffered recurrent terrorist attacks. However, a quantitative analysis of the impact of such incidents on Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in the country is lacking. This paper explores the effects of terror incidents in India on FTAs and the durability of such impacts using econometric tools of analysis. It is expected that the findings will be helpful for policy-makers to understand to what extent the campaigns launched by them in the aftermath of terror strikes succeed in restoring the confidence of the potential tourists and thereby in winning them back to travel to India.

Keywords: India; tourism; terrorism; econometrics; VAR; vector autoregression; terror incidents; foreign tourists; tourist arrivals; terrorist attacks.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTP.2010.037993

International Journal of Tourism Policy, 2010 Vol.3 No.3, pp.213 - 222

Received: 12 Jan 2010
Accepted: 29 Jul 2010
Published online: 07 Jan 2011 *

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