Title: Predicting popularity of mass-market films using the tenets of disposition theory

Authors: Matthew Grizzard, Robert J. Lewis, Seungcheol Austin Lee, Allison Eden

Addresses: 557 Communication Arts and Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. ' 463 Communication Arts and Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. ' 443 Communication Arts and Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. ' 552 Communication Arts and Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA

Abstract: Disposition theory (DT) has been a prevalent and useful theory for examining narrative enjoyment. This study uses logic from DT to predict film popularity indicated by box office gross. A content analysis was conducted on the plot summaries of popular films to determine the extent to which dispositional considerations were upheld. Results indicate that adherence to dispositional considerations is prevalent, but not a significant predictor of film popularity when controlling for other important variables such as budget. Results indicate a need for scholars to incorporate greater understanding of the predictive power of theoretical models in real-world applications.

Keywords: mass media; media appeal; disposition theory; mass market films; film popularity; box office gross; content analysis; plot summaries; popular films.

DOI: 10.1504/IJART.2011.037769

International Journal of Arts and Technology, 2011 Vol.4 No.1, pp.48 - 60

Available online: 27 Dec 2010

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