Title: Comparison of General Circulation Models: methodology for selecting the best GCM in Kermanshah Synoptic Station, Iran

Authors: S.Z. Samadi, Gummeneni Sagareswar, M. Tajiki

Addresses: Agriculture and Natural Resources Engineering College, Islamic Azad University – Ghaemshahr Branch, P.O. Box 163, Ghaemshahr, Iran. ' Geoenvironmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF2 43AA, UK. ' Forests, Range and Watershed Management Organization, Watershed Management Department, P.O. Box 19564, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will have significant implications for climate at global and regional scales. Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to change in air temperature and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation are important parameters for water management, so the climate change studies on different systems such as climatology and water resources can lead to more optimal water resource management and planning. In this research, correlation and frequency analysis is used for uncertainty analysis, then Hadley Centre Coupled Model version3 (HadCM3) is selected as the best GCM for Kermanshah synoptic station, Iran.

Keywords: GCMs; general circulation models; climate change; uncertainty; HadCM3; Hadley Centre Coupled Model version3; Iran; greenhouse gases; GHG emissions; global warming; water management; water resource planning; water resource management; water management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2010.037590

International Journal of Global Warming, 2010 Vol.2 No.4, pp.347 - 365

Published online: 19 Dec 2010 *

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