Title: Forecast of the output value of Taiwan's IC industry using the Grey forecasting model

Authors: Chin-Tsai Lin, Shih-Yu Yang

Addresses: Yuanpei Institute of Science and Technology, No. 306, Yuanpei Street, Hsin Chu 300, Taiwan. Graduate Institute of Management Science, Ming Chuan University, No. 250, Chung Shan North Road Section 5, Taipei 111, Taiwan

Abstract: This paper applies the Grey forecasting model of Grey theory to accurately forecast the output value of Taiwan’s IC industry from 2000 to 2005. The Grey forecasting model is also used to accurately forecast the output value of the IC industry from 2000 to 2005. The 2005 output value of Taiwan’s IC industry will be NT$1276.279 billion. The 2005 output value of foundry wafer will be NT$403.648 billion. The 2005 output value of IC package will be NT$374.607 billion. The 2005 output value of IC fabrication will be NT$470.685 billion. The 2005 output value of diode will be NT$19.695 billion. The 2005 output value of transistor will be NT$7.644 billion. Our results indicate that the average residual error of Grey forecasting model is lower than 10%. Our results further demonstrate that the Grey forecasting model has a high prediction accuracy. Clearly, the Grey forecasting model is a viable alternative to accurately forecast the industrial output value. Results in this study provide a valuable reference for government in drafting relevant policies for the IC industry.

Keywords: Forecasting; Grey theory; IC industry; output value; Taiwan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2004.003657

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2004 Vol.19 No.1, pp.23 - 27

Published online: 13 Dec 2003 *

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