Title: Economic model system of chronic diseases in Australia: a novel approach initially focusing on diabetes and cardiovascular disease

Authors: Agnes Walker, James R.G. Butler, Stephen Colagiuri

Addresses: Australian Centre for Economic Research on Health, Australian National University (ANU), Canberra ACT 0200, Australia. ' Australian Centre for Economic Research on Health, Australian National University (ANU), Canberra ACT 0200, Australia. ' Institute of Obesity, Nutrition and Exercise, University of Sydney, Camperdown NSW 2006, Australia

Abstract: Chronic diseases affect around 80% of older Australians, are main causes of premature death, and account for 70% of health expenditures. The novel features, building and validation of an Australian prototype model-system which simulates interventions that target several chronic diseases are described. Chronic disease progression models are linked to a population-wide microsimulation projection model that accounts for demographic, socio-economic and health characteristics, comorbidities, health expenditures, quality of life. It estimates costs vs. benefits of simulated policy interventions. The outcome is a validated person-level prototype able to simultaneously model diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD). An illustrative model application is also presented.

Keywords: multiple chronic diseases; microsimulation modelling; economic analysis; health policy interventions; diabetes; CVD; cardiovascular disease; economic modelling; simulation; Australia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2010.036018

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 2010 Vol.6 No.2, pp.137 - 151

Published online: 12 Oct 2010 *

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