Title: Investigation of a new prediction model for technology demand

Authors: Ki-Nam Park, Jong-Weon Kim

Addresses: e-Business and MIS Department, Dong-Eui University, Busan, 995 Eomgwangno, Busanjin-gu, 614-714, Korea. ' e-Business and MIS Department, Dong-Eui University, Busan, 995 Eomgwangno, Busanjin-gu, 614-714, Korea

Abstract: In recent years, the new technology market has grown rapidly, becoming more complex and competitive in the process. This has made it very difficult for firms in the market to accurately forecast technology demand. However, it is important for firms to expect a pro forma. Many diffusion models have been proposed in the literature that forecast new product demand. Such models often presuppose that we can obtain demand data to make predictions on an ex ante basis. However, for most new technologies, data cannot be obtained during development, causing difficulties for firms that need to secure investment for research and development. We propose another diffusion model that does not require initial data. We apply a choice-based diffusion model to the Korean ADSL market. We find this model useful because it enables the prediction of demand for brand-new technology without initial data and provides the flexibility to include utility variables.

Keywords: new technology evaluation; diffusion modelling; conjoint analysis; case-based reasoning; CBR; technology demand; new technology diffusion; research and development; R&D investment; Korea; ADSL market; utility variables; demand prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTMKT.2010.035695

International Journal of Technology Marketing, 2010 Vol.5 No.2, pp.163 - 180

Published online: 02 Oct 2010 *

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