Title: Bayesian aggregation error?

Authors: Valen E. Johnson

Addresses: M.D. Anderson Cancer Centre, 1515 Holcombe Blvd, Unit 447, Houston, TX 77030-4009, USA

Abstract: Differences between inferences obtained from Bayesian reliability models using system-level data versus component-level data have motivated a call for a |basic restructuring of the Bayes procedure|. This paper explores the source of such differences and demonstrates that Bayesian models would be aberrant only if such differences did not exist.

Keywords: multi-level reliability modelling; Markov chain; Monte Carlo simulation; Bayesian inference; Bayesian aggregation errors; Bayesian reliability models.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRS.2010.035574

International Journal of Reliability and Safety, 2010 Vol.4 No.4, pp.359 - 365

Available online: 30 Sep 2010 *

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