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Title: Application of an optimisation model to studying some aspects of Russia's economic development

Authors: B.V. Digas, V.L. Rozenberg

Addresses: Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, IMM UB RAS, S.Kovalevskoi St. 16, 620219 Ekaterinburg, Russia. ' Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, IMM UB RAS, S.Kovalevskoi St. 16, 620219 Ekaterinburg, Russia

Abstract: The global climate change is one of the most important and disputable problems in the modern world. The Kyoto Protocol is an effort of the international community to control environmental impacts. To study pros and cons of Russia|s participation in this initiative, different integrated assessment models for evaluating greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction policies can be engaged. In the present paper, an approach to modelling is briefly described and some simulation results are discussed. The emphasis is on obtaining the |optimal| temporal dynamics of economic-energetic indices for different scenarios of Russia|s development. The main result shows that, in the first commitment period of the Protocol, GHG emissions in Russia can reach the critical level in some extreme cases.

Keywords: policy evaluation; GHG emissions; emission reduction; greenhouse gases; Kyoto Protocol; regional effects; modelling; global effects; MERGE; Russia; economic development; inter-temporal optimisation; climate change; integrated assessment models.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPDM.2010.033911

International Journal of Environmental Policy and Decision Making, 2010 Vol.1 No.1, pp.51 - 63

Published online: 03 Jul 2010 *

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