Authors: Nathan Boskers, Simaan M. AbouRizk
Addresses: Springwood Developments, 10150 121 Street, Edmonton, Alberta, T5N 1K4, Canada. ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2, Canada
Abstract: This paper presents the development of a Special Purpose Simulation (SPS) template for capital planning on large-scale infrastructure construction projects. The template targets outputs of greatest interest to the planner: project duration and cost estimate, using the Box Jenkins method of forecasting. The developed tool was tested in a case study involving roadway restructuring in Edmonton, Canada. The case study is detailed here for purposes of illustration. Seven models were simulated and analysed, showing the relative influence of fixed rates and mean rates on forecasting, and that subjective analysis procedures can cause disadvantageous decision-making. The case study was also used to perform risk analysis for the City of Edmonton.
Keywords: simulation models; intelligent forecasting; capital projects; construction project planning; special purpose simulation; capital planning; infrastructure projects; roadway restructuring; Canada; modelling; risk assessment.
International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 2010 Vol.6 No.1, pp.58 - 66
Received: 16 Oct 2008
Accepted: 08 May 2009
Published online: 11 Apr 2010 *