Title: A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement

Authors: Bhupesh Kumar Lad, Makarand S. Kulkarni

Addresses: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, (IIT Delhi), Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, (IIT Delhi), Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India

Abstract: This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.

Keywords: reliability analysis; data analysis; parameter estimation; expert judgement; preventive maintenance; restoration factor; machine tool reliability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDATS.2010.032455

International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, 2010 Vol.2 No.2, pp.155 - 169

Published online: 03 Apr 2010 *

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