Title: Testing terrorism theory with data mining

Authors: Anthony Scime, Gregg R. Murray, Lance Y. Hunter

Addresses: Department of Computer Science, The College at Brockport, State University of New York, Brockport, NY 14420, USA. ' Department of Political Science, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA. ' Department of Political Science, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA

Abstract: This research demonstrates the application of multiple data mining techniques to test theories of the macro-level causes of terrorism. The unique dataset is comprised of terrorist events and measures of social, political and economic contexts in 185 countries worldwide between the years 1970 and 2004. The theories are assessed using the iterative expert data mining (IEDM) methodology with classification mining and then association mining. The resulting 100 rules suggest that the level of democracy in a country is an integral part of the explanation for terrorism. This research shows that a multi-method data mining approach can be used to test competing theories in a discipline by analysing large, comprehensive datasets that capture multiple theories and include large numbers of records.

Keywords: association mining; classification; data dimensionality reduction; iterative expert data mining; decision trees; IEDM; rule reduction; significance testing; social science theory; terrorism causes; data analysis; testing theory.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDATS.2010.032453

International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, 2010 Vol.2 No.2, pp.122 - 139

Published online: 03 Apr 2010 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article