Title: Modelling and simulation of new product diffusion with negative appraise based on system dynamics: a comparative perspective

Authors: Tongyang Yu, Xiaoguang Gong, Renbin Xiao

Addresses: School of management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074, PR China. ' School of management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074, PR China. ' School of management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074, PR China

Abstract: The enterprises often neglect the consumers| negative appraise, and as a result it leads to shrinkage in market and operating landslide. In our former research, the multi-agent model has been established to study the negative appraise on new product diffusion and some meaningful results have been obtained. But it is still unclear on the macro-level factors| relationships. In this paper, a system dynamics model of new product diffusion with negative appraise is established based on innovation diffusion theory, and the negative appraise effect is analysed on macro-level aspect. Through simulation experiments, the new product diffusion process is affected obviously by the negative appraise. The diffusion process is sensitive to the probability of negative appraise and produce life cycle. By comparing with multi-agent simulation, the results of macro-level simulation are the same as the multi-agent ones, and the two simulation ways can testify the effectiveness by each other.

Keywords: new product diffusion; negative appraisal; system dynamics; multi-agent systems; multi-agent modelling; diffusion equation; word-of-mouth; Bass diffusion model; PLC; product life cycle; sensitivity analysis; simulation; multi-agent systems; innovation diffusion theory.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2010.031942

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2010 Vol.37 No.3/4, pp.268 - 278

Available online: 03 Mar 2010 *

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