Title: The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO₂ emissions

Authors: Christian Lutz, Bernd Meyer, Marc Ingo Wolter

Addresses: Gesellschaft fur Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) mbH, Osnabruck, Germany. ' Department of Economics and Business Administration, University of Osnabruck, 49069 Osnabruck, Germany; Gesellschaft fur Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) mbH, Osnabruck, Germany. ' Gesellschaft fur Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) mbH, Osnabruck, Germany

Abstract: The paper presents the multisector/multicountry energy–economic–environment model GINFORS, which has already been used as the simulation engine in the project MOSUS of the 5th EU framework programme. The detailed description of the model features the application ability for energy forecasts and simulations. An overview of the system is given, and the structures of the multisector international trade model are depicted as well as those of the Input–Output Models (IOMs), the Macro-Models (MMs) and the energy models of the several countries. Further, the paper defines a baseline scenario with a high constant real oil price for the period 2006-2020 and derives a global forecast for energy demand, CO₂ emissions and economic development with some sector and country details.

Keywords: policy simulation; econometric models; global modelling; energy–economy–environment modelling; global energy demand; CO2 emissions; carbon emissions; greenhouse gases; GHG emissions; economic development; carbon dioxide.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGENVI.2010.030567

International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 2010 Vol.10 No.1/2, pp.25 - 45

Published online: 24 Dec 2009 *

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