Title: Chaos theory: forecasting the freight rate of an oil tanker

Authors: Eleftherios I. Thalassinos, Mike P. Hanias, Panayiotis G. Curtis, Yannis E. Thalassinos

Addresses: University of Piraeus, Department of Maritime Studies, Karaoli and Dimitriou 40, 185-32 Piraeus, Greece. ' Technological Educational Institute, Department of Engineering, Psachna, Chalkis, Greece. ' Technological Educational Institute, Department of Accounting, Psachna, Chalkis, Greece. ' Technological Educational Institute, Department of Accounting, Psachna, Chalkis, Greece

Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to predict the Aframax tanker charter rate index by using methods from non-linear analysis especially from chaos theory as is the method of false nearest neighbours (FNN). This is the result of the new emerging field of econo-physics which mainly consists of autonomous physico-mathematical models that have been already applied to the financial markets and now in particular aspects of the complex non-linear dynamics of several maritime indices such as the time charter rate of an Aframax tanker.

Keywords: chaos theory; strange attractors; shipping indices prediction; freight rates; oil tankers; Aframax tanker charter rate index; false nearest neighbours; FNN.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2009.029154

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2009 Vol.1 No.1, pp.76 - 88

Published online: 06 Nov 2009 *

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