Title: Soil water surplus and ENSO events during the last humid period in Argentine Pampean flatlands

Authors: Olga Eugenia Scarpati, Juan Alberto Forte Lay, Alberto Daniel Capriolo

Addresses: National Research Council, Pharmacological and Botanic Studies Center, Paraguay 2155, Floor 17, Buenos Aires, PC 1121, Argentina. ' Natural Sciences and Museum Faculty, National Research Council, La Plata National University, 60 y 122, La Plata, PC 1900, Argentina. ' National Research Council, Pharmacological and Botanic Studies Center, Paraguay 2155, Floor 17, Buenos Aires, PC 1121, Argentina

Abstract: Daily soil water balances are estimated for the period 1951-2006 in the Pampean flatlands. Daily soil water surplus is the major output with their annual trends, being analysed because of their harmful effects on crop harvests and floods. Soil water surplus trends were analysed founding positive trends, although only two stations were statistically significant at probability level of 95%. Differing phases of ENSO – using the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) – have differing impacts on rain and soil moisture conditions. The probabilities of occurrence of predetermined soil water surplus and hence flood risk are calculated and mapped.

Keywords: Argentina; Pampean flatlands; soil water balance; soil water surplus; trends; ENSO; El Nino Southern Oscillation; probabilities; water table; agriculture; crop harvests; flooding; flood risk; rain; soil moisture.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2009.028725

International Journal of Water, 2009 Vol.5 No.2, pp.181 - 193

Available online: 25 Sep 2009 *

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