Title: Estimation of potential impact on Copenhagen, Denmark due to accidental releases at Nuclear Risk Sites

Authors: Alexander Grigorievich Mahura, Alexander Anatolievich Baklanov, Jens Havskov Sorensen

Addresses: Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. ' Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. ' Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract: This paper is focused on the testing of a methodology developed for nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and probabilistic evaluation of the long-term atmospheric transport and deposition patterns for radioactive pollutants from selected nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region. A combination of models (3-D trajectory, DERMA, and HIRLAM) was used to simulate such transport, dispersion, and deposition of 137Cs for a one-day hypothetical release. The ranking of the potential impact on Copenhagen, Denmark from selected sites showed that for concentration and dry deposition the order of such ranking is identical. If wet deposition is accounted for, the ranks can change significantly at the mesoscale.

Keywords: long-term trajectory modelling; dispersion modelling; atmospheric transport; atmospheric deposition; probabilistic analysis; NRS; nuclear risk sites; potential impact; nuclear energy; nuclear power; Copenhagen; Denmark; vulnerability analysis; risk assessment; radioactive pollutants; simulation; accidental releases.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2009.027149

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2009 Vol.39 No.1/2, pp.159 - 167

Published online: 16 Jul 2009 *

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