Title: Discerning nuclear proliferation intentions: some lessons from nature

Authors: S. Rao

Addresses: Risk Analytics and Solutions, 401, Valentina, Hiranandani Estate, Patlipada, Thane (W), India

Abstract: Discerning the nuclear proliferation intentions of nation-states is a challenge faced by strategic policy decision makers worldwide. Typical nuclear proliferation discourses revolve around the intentions and capabilities of nation-states, as also the events and conditions furthering the cause of nuclear proliferation. Various international relations theories try to explain a state|s motivations for proliferation. However, policy makers are often confronted with strategic decision-making situations that are complex, nonlinear and evolving. In order to provide them with any meaningful support under such circumstances, a Decision Support System (DSS) model is required that can provide a complex, emergent insight into the proliferation intentions of nation-states. This paper presents such a computationally intelligent model (Discerning Nuclear Intentions or DiNI) based on the sociobiological phenomenon of altruism. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the model. The results show the potential of this model as a strategic nuclear policy DSS for containing nuclear proliferation. Further research directions are discussed.

Keywords: nuclear proliferation; proliferation intentions; complexity; strategic policy; strategic decision making; computational intelligence; altruism; motivation; decision support systems; DSS; nuclear policy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJNKM.2009.027062

International Journal of Nuclear Knowledge Management, 2009 Vol.3 No.3, pp.284 - 295

Available online: 13 Jul 2009 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article