Title: Uncertainty propagation in decision support models

Authors: E. Borgonovo

Addresses: Department of Decision Sciences – Eleusi Research Center, Bocconi University, 20135 Milano, Viale Isonzo 25, Italy

Abstract: We propose an analytical approach to uncertainty analysis in decision support models. After providing the expression of the generic central and non-central moment of the model output, we prove that the expected value of the output equals the weighted average of the utility of all the consequences. This result allows to generalise risk profile diagrams to the case of uncertain probabilities.

Keywords: uncertainty analysis; decision analysis; influence diagrams; decision trees; decision support models; risk profile diagrams; uncertain probabilities.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2009.026533

International Journal of Operational Research, 2009 Vol.6 No.2, pp.155 - 175

Published online: 19 Jun 2009 *

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