Title: Using a decision support systems computer simulation model to examine HIV and tuberculosis: the Russian Federation

Authors: Reda M. Lebcir, Jyoti Choudrie, Rifat A. Atun, Richard J. Coker

Addresses: Business School, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Herts, AL 10 9AB, UK. ' Business School, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Herts, AL 10 9AB, UK. ' Centre for Health Management, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, UK. ' Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to describe the development and use of a computer simulation model that can be used as a Decision Support System (DSS) to tackle the critical public health issues of HIV and HIV-related tuberculosis in the Russian Federation. This country has recently witnessed an explosion of HIV infections and a worrying spread of the Multi-Drug Resistant form of Tuberculosis (MDRTB). The conclusions drawn are that a high population coverage with Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment (HAART) (75% or higher), allied with high MDRTB cure rates, reduces cumulative deaths by 60%, with limited impact below this level. This research offers a simulation model that can be applied as a DSS by public health officials to inform policy making. By doing so, ways of controlling the spread of HIV and MDRTB and reduce mortality from these serious public health threats is provided.

Keywords: electronic healthcare; HIV; tuberculosis; HAART; Russia; system dynamics; decision support systems; DSS; e-healthcare; simulation; modelling; highly active anti-retroviral treatment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEH.2009.026270

International Journal of Electronic Healthcare, 2009 Vol.5 No.1, pp.14 - 32

Available online: 05 Jun 2009 *

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