Title: Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Authors: Prasanta Kumar Dey, Stephen O. Ogunlana

Addresses: University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Department of Management Studies, PO Box 64, Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Asian Institute of Technology, School of Civil Engineering, PO Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

Abstract: Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project|s life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Keywords: risk management; AHP; DSS; simulation; petroleum pipeline; time-cost control; decision support systems.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2002.002552

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2002 Vol.3 No.2/3/4, pp.189-204

Published online: 23 Jul 2003 *

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