Title: Valuing technology along a timeline of technological maturity

Authors: Clare Farrukh, Marcel Dissel, Karen Jackson, Robert Phaal, David R. Probert

Addresses: Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK. ' Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK. ' Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK. ' Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK. ' Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK

Abstract: The issue of assessing technology for business application remains a foremost concern for managers in industry. Many managers know that there is something unsatisfactory about the standard use of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques, particularly when there is high uncertainty and a need for strategic flexibility. However, whatever the lack of hard data, it is also unsettling to rely on pure |gut feel|. It is proposed that a time-based view of valuation, built on technological maturity concepts, can assist in the assessment of technology development projects. The paper draws on interviews in UK telecommunications, aerospace and pharmaceutical companies.

Keywords: technology valuation; technology assessment; uncertainty; tools; techniques; options; scoring; readiness levels; technological maturity; strategic flexibility; time-based view; technology development; UK; United Kingdom; telecommunications industry; aerospace industry; pharmaceutical industry; technology management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2009.024599

International Journal of Technology Management, 2009 Vol.48 No.1, pp.42 - 55

Available online: 10 Apr 2009 *

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