Title: A conditional value-at-risk model for insurance products with a guarantee

Authors: Andrea Consiglio, Antonio Pecorella, Stavros A. Zenios

Addresses: University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy. ' University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy. ' University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

Abstract: We propose a model to select the optimal portfolio which underlies insurance policies with a guarantee. The objective function is defined in order to minimise the conditional value at-risk (CVaR) of the distribution of the losses with respect to a target return. We add operational and regulatory constraints to make the model as flexible as possible when used for real applications. We show that the integration of the asset and liability side yields superior performances with respect to naive fixed-mix portfolios and asset based strategies. We validate the model on out-of-sample scenarios and provide insights on policy design.

Keywords: asset liability management; conditional VaR; value at risk; CVaR; minimum guarantee policies; portfolio selection; insurance policies; financial risk.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2009.022201

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2009 Vol.11 No.1/2, pp.122 - 137

Published online: 22 Dec 2008 *

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