Title: An expert system for forecasting mutual funds in Greece

Authors: Fotios Petropoulos, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Vassilios Assimakopoulos

Addresses: Forecasting Systems Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytexneiou Str., Zografou, 15780, Greece. ' Strategic Economic Modeling & Policy Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Tripolis, 22100, Greece; Forecasting Systems Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytexneiou Str., Zografou, 15780, Greece. ' Forecasting Systems Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytexneiou Str., Zografou, 15780, Greece; Special Secretary for Digital Planning, Ministry of Economy and Finance, 5–7 Nikis Str., 10180, Athens, Greece

Abstract: Forecasting the returns from investments in mutual funds is a very difficult problem. This study examines a new forecasting approach and system for the performance of mutual funds in Greece. This is accomplished via an application of a variation of the Theta model on a time series composed of the daily values of mutual funds. The proposed models are simple and implemented into an easy-to-use expert forecasting system.

Keywords: forecasting; mutual funds; linear regression; Greece; Theta model; electronic finance; e-finance; expert systems; ROI; return on investment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEF.2008.021802

International Journal of Electronic Finance, 2008 Vol.2 No.4, pp.404 - 418

Published online: 04 Dec 2008 *

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