Title: Three global water scenarios

Authors: Gilberto C. Gallopin, Frank Rijsberman

Addresses: Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden. World Water Vision Management Unit, World Water Council, UNESCO, Division of Water Sciences, 1 Rue Miollis, 75015 Paris, France

Abstract: A set of three global scenarios used to initiate consultation on a World Water Vision is presented, derived from alternative evolutions of the major forces driving the global water situation economic, demographic, technological, social, environmental and governance. The alternative scenarios are the Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU), representing the future trajectory if those who don|t believe in the crisis prevail, and no major policy or lifestyle changes take place; the Economics, Technology and Private Sector scenario (TEC), which could result from policies favoured by those who rely on the market, the involvement of the private sector and mainly technological solutions, and largely national/local or basin-level action; and the Values and Lifestyles scenario (VAL), that could materialise through a revival of human values, strengthened international cooperation, heavy emphasis on education, international mechanisms, international rules, increased solidarity and changes in lifestyles and behaviour. A number of general conclusions are derived.

Keywords: future studies; integrated water resources management; water and development; water scenarios.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2000.002055

International Journal of Water, 2000 Vol.1 No.1, pp.16-40

Available online: 15 Aug 2003 *

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