Title: Development of technology foresight: integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method

Authors: Daisuke Kanama, Akio Kondo, Yoshiko Yokoo

Addresses: National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0013, Japan. ' National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0013, Japan. ' National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0013, Japan

Abstract: This study examines integration of the Delphi method with technology roadmapping as a new technology foresight system. The Delphi method and technology roadmapping have developed in different ways, and these two foresight methods are now attracting attention from both national governments and private companies. However, each method also has limitations when attempting to deal with accelerating technological complexity and sophistication and latent markets. This study reviews the merits and demerits of the Delphi method and technology roadmapping, and proposes a new method of technology foresight, which takes advantage of the strengths of both methods.

Keywords: technology foresight; technology roadmapping; Delphi method; technological complexity; integration; technology planning.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2008.018316

International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2008 Vol.4 No.2, pp.184 - 200

Available online: 15 May 2008 *

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