Title: Reliable stochastic design of road network systems

Authors: Loukas Dimitriou, Antony Stathopoulos, Theodore Tsekeris

Addresses: Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5 Iroon Polytechniou, Athens 157 73, Greece. ' Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5 Iroon Polytechniou, Athens 157 73, Greece. ' Centre for Planning and Economic Research, Amerikis 11, Athens 106 72, Greece

Abstract: This paper investigates the continuous version of the stochastic Network Design Problem (NDP) with reliability requirements. The problem is considered as a two-stage Stackelberg game with complete information and is formulated as a stochastic bi-level programming problem, which is extended to include reliability as well as physical and budget constraints. The estimation procedure combines the use of Monte Carlo simulation for modelling the stochastic nature of the system variables with a Genetic Algorithm (GA), for treating the complexity of this new formulation. The computational experience obtained from a test road network application demonstrates the ability of the proposed methodology to address the need for incorporating reliability requirements and stochasticity into the various system components in the design process. The results can provide useful insight into the evaluation of alternative reliable network capacity improvement plans under the effect of uncertainty on the demand, supply and route choice process of travellers.

Keywords: network design; systems reliability; transportation systems; stochastic system modelling; Stackelberg game; Monte Carlo simulation; genetic algorithms; GAs; road networks; alternative networks; reliable networks; network capacity.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISE.2008.018232

International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2008 Vol.3 No.5, pp.549 - 574

Published online: 13 May 2008 *

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