Title: Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

Authors: Larry G. Paisley, Aline De Koeijer, Thomas J. Hagenaars, Deirdre Murray, Franck Guarnieri, Amie Adkin, Christine Jacob

Addresses: Section of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment, Department of Veterinary Diagnostics and Research, Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research, Bulowsvej 27, 1790 Copenhagen V, Denmark. ' Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Diseases, Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands. ' Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Diseases, Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands. ' Ecole des Mines de Paris, ARMINES, Pole Cindyniques, BP 207, Rue Claude Daunesse, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France. ' Ecole des Mines de Paris, ARMINES, Pole Cindyniques, BP 207, Rue Claude Daunesse, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France. ' Risk Analysis and GIS Workgroup, Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Weybridge, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK. ' Unity of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, INRA, 78352 Jouy-en-Josas, France

Abstract: The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, successful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSEs of animal origin was reviewed and used to describe the state-of-the-art of risk analysis for TSEs.

Keywords: bovine spongiform encephalopathy; BSE; prion diseases; risk analysis; risk assessment; risk communication; risk management; transmissible spongiform encephalopathy; TSE; animals.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2008.018209

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2008 Vol.8 No.3, pp.214- 242

Published online: 12 May 2008 *

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