Title: Uncertainty and Intelligent Transport Systems: implications for policy

Authors: Marina van Geenhuizen, Wil Thissen

Addresses: Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, PO Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, PO Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract: Policy making with respect to Intelligent Transport Systems has to face a host of uncertainties. These relate to the lack of knowledge about technological developments, about the functionality and the acceptance of the envisaged systems, and about the impacts of these systems once implemented. These uncertainties have important implications for policy choices and the types of policies that should be considered. We first describe a generic typology of uncertainties, their causes, and possible ways to deal with them. Next, we apply this typology to the field of policy making with respect to Intelligent Transport Systems development and implementation. We conclude that a preferred strategy would combine further knowledge acquisition and learning with an adaptive policy. Key elements that need to be elaborated in the development of such a policy are identified.

Keywords: Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS); uncertainty; typology of uncertainty; adaptive policy making.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2002.001755

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2002 Vol.2 No.1, pp.5-19

Published online: 18 Aug 2003 *

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