Title: Blind faith in the Balkans: trade policy options for South-East Europe

Authors: Dean DeRosa, David Kernohan

Addresses: ADR International, Falls Church, Virginia, USA. ' Head of Economics and Statistics, Middlesex University Business School, The Burroughs, Hendon, London, NW4 4BT, UK

Abstract: This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South-East Europe is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. Using econometric tests, we find that trade patterns appear to remain problematic. Second, partial equilibrium simulations are used to examine different institutional structures. These suggest that the present system of regional ties may do little to stimulate internal trade. In view of this, current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade group may be inadequate.

Keywords: transition; regulation; international trade; Balkans; South-East Europe; emerging economies; economic policy; trade patterns; institutional structures; internal trade; trade agreements; trade groups; regional trade; EU convergence; European Union.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2007.015582

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2007 Vol.1 No.1, pp.53 - 87

Published online: 31 Oct 2007 *

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