Title: The economic future of Russia

Authors: Pekka Sutela

Addresses: BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition), PO Box 160, 00101 Helsinki, Finland

Abstract: The paper provides a scenario exercise for Russian economic development until 2017. Russia will continue to grow for several years at least, as an emerging middle class drives consumption growth and structural change, though not in exports. Import propensity grows fast, and the recent current account surplus is disappearing fast. Investment also seems to be surging. Two dimensions seem crucial for building scenarios. Will Russia be able to increase energy production and exports? Will there be a meaningful diversification of production and exports, needed for maintaining the current account and to provide jobs for a large if slowly decreasing labour force? Ensuing scenarios have clear political implications.

Keywords: Russia; economic development; energy production; exports; employment; scenario analysis; consumption growth; structural change; emerging economies; economic policy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2007.015580

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2007 Vol.1 No.1, pp.21 - 33

Published online: 31 Oct 2007 *

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