Title: Satellite infrastructure risk and resilience: socio-economic risks, continuity planning and policy responses

Authors: Saquib Hyat-Khan

Addresses: The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Unit 28152, Washington, D.C., 20038, USA

Abstract: This paper evaluates socio-economic risks stemming from satellite infrastructure disruptions, assessing impacts across critical sectors using structured scenario analysis informed by documented historical cases from sources including NASA, Lloyd's of London, and the US Government Accountability Office (GAO). Methodological robustness stems from scenario selection criteria involving prominent satellite disruption mechanisms such as Kessler syndrome and extreme solar storms, validated via data triangulation from institutional reports. Analysis identifies immediate sectoral disruptions such as GPS-dependent aviation grounding and financial transaction suspensions, citing explicit economic losses of approximately $1 billion daily from US GPS outages (RTI International). The study highlights significant continuity planning gaps within ISO 22301 and NFPA 1600 standards, specifically noting their absence of satellite-focused disruption scenarios. Theoretical frameworks, including Perrow's normal accidents theory and Taleb's black swan concept, inform resilience recommendations by emphasising the necessity of redundancy and proactive planning. International disparities, exemplified by satellite-dependency exceeding 50% in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (ITU), underscore urgent infrastructural and policy cooperation.

Keywords: satellite infrastructure; business continuity; risk management; satellite disruptions; socio-economic impacts; GPS outage; Kessler syndrome; solar storms; normal accidents theory; black swan events; ISO 22301; NFPA 1600; infrastructure resilience; critical infrastructure; international cooperation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2026.155773

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2026 Vol.16 No.3, pp.276 - 295

Received: 30 May 2025
Accepted: 22 Nov 2025
Published online: 13 Aug 2026 *

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