Article: The effects of tariffs on inflation based on the linear regression model Journal: International Journal of Information and Communication Technology (IJICT) 2026 Vol.27 No.41 pp.92 - 127 Abstract: This paper examines how US tariff changes have affected consumer inflation over the past four decades using linear and quadratic regression models. Combining headline CPI with sub-indices for automobiles and apparel, and applying a 10% trimmed-sample procedure, the analysis tests for both average and nonlinear effects. Once GDP growth, interest rates and unemployment are controlled for, tariffs have little explanatory power for aggregate CPI. Sector-level regressions tell a different story: in autos and apparel small tariff changes barely move prices, but beyond a threshold further increases are associated with sharply higher inflation, consistent with convex, state-dependent pass-through. The findings suggest that tariffs do not operate as a broad engine of US inflation; they mainly reallocate price pressure toward import-intensive consumer goods, with the strength of the response shaped by supply-chain flexibility and market structure. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: The effects of tariffs on inflation based on the linear regression model

Authors: Haotian Xiang

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA

Abstract: This paper examines how US tariff changes have affected consumer inflation over the past four decades using linear and quadratic regression models. Combining headline CPI with sub-indices for automobiles and apparel, and applying a 10% trimmed-sample procedure, the analysis tests for both average and nonlinear effects. Once GDP growth, interest rates and unemployment are controlled for, tariffs have little explanatory power for aggregate CPI. Sector-level regressions tell a different story: in autos and apparel small tariff changes barely move prices, but beyond a threshold further increases are associated with sharply higher inflation, consistent with convex, state-dependent pass-through. The findings suggest that tariffs do not operate as a broad engine of US inflation; they mainly reallocate price pressure toward import-intensive consumer goods, with the strength of the response shaped by supply-chain flexibility and market structure.

Keywords: tariffs; inflation; consumer prices index; trade policy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJICT.2026.153372

International Journal of Information and Communication Technology, 2026 Vol.27 No.41, pp.92 - 127

Received: 07 Nov 2025
Accepted: 12 Dec 2025
Published online: 06 May 2026 *

Title: The effects of tariffs on inflation based on the linear regression model

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