Article: M-Probability: a modified probability approach for multi-criteria decision making Journal: International Journal of Agile Systems and Management (IJASM) 2026 Vol.19 No.2 pp.224 - 250 Abstract: One of the prominent multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques utilised for ranking alternatives is the probability method. However, the probability method has limitations: it cannot be applied when the decision matrix includes a profit criterion with negative values for certain alternatives, or when the sum of this criterion's values across all alternatives is zero. To address these limitations, this study introduces a modified version of the Probability method, called M-Probability. By altering certain formulas, M-probability overcomes the restrictions inherent in the original approach. The efficacy of M-Probability has been rigorously tested through comparisons with other MCDM methods across five case studies, analysing over 250 output scenarios through comparative and sensitivity analyses. The results consistently demonstrated that M-Probability achieves a high level of accuracy. M-Probability method represents a significant advancement, providing a more robust and accurate decision-making tool that effectively circumvents the shortcomings of the original method. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: M-Probability: a modified probability approach for multi-criteria decision making

Authors: Do Duc Trung; Nguyen Van Thien; Hoang Tien Dung; Nazlı Ersoy

Addresses: School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering (SMAE), Hanoi University of Industry, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam ' Hanoi University of Industry, Cau Dien, Bac Tu Liem, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam ' School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering (SMAE), Hanoi University of Industry, Cau Dien, Bac Tu Liem, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam ' Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye, 80000, Türkiye

Abstract: One of the prominent multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques utilised for ranking alternatives is the probability method. However, the probability method has limitations: it cannot be applied when the decision matrix includes a profit criterion with negative values for certain alternatives, or when the sum of this criterion's values across all alternatives is zero. To address these limitations, this study introduces a modified version of the Probability method, called M-Probability. By altering certain formulas, M-probability overcomes the restrictions inherent in the original approach. The efficacy of M-Probability has been rigorously tested through comparisons with other MCDM methods across five case studies, analysing over 250 output scenarios through comparative and sensitivity analyses. The results consistently demonstrated that M-Probability achieves a high level of accuracy. M-Probability method represents a significant advancement, providing a more robust and accurate decision-making tool that effectively circumvents the shortcomings of the original method.

Keywords: MCDM; multi-criteria decision making; probability method; M-Probability method; modified probability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJASM.2026.152895

International Journal of Agile Systems and Management, 2026 Vol.19 No.2, pp.224 - 250

Received: 09 Dec 2024
Accepted: 25 Feb 2025
Published online: 14 Apr 2026 *

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Title: M-Probability: a modified probability approach for multi-criteria decision making

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