Title: Game theory-based lane-changing decisions in adverse weather conditions

Authors: Jian Ma; Zheng Qian; Liyan Zhang; Xiaofei Hu; Keyi Cao; Qianlong Fu

Addresses: School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 1701 Binhe Road, New District, Suzhou, 215011, China ' School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 99 Xuefu Road, Huqiu District, Suzhou, 215009, China ' School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 1701 Binhe Road, New District, Suzhou, 215011, China ' School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 1701 Binhe Road, New District, Suzhou, 215011, China ' School of Business, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 99 Xuefu Road, Huqiu District, Suzhou, 215009, China ' School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, 1701 Binhe Road, New District, Suzhou, 215011, China

Abstract: Adverse weather significantly impacts driving safety and increases road accidents. Lane-changing is essential for efficient vehicle operation, but its influencing factors are complex under adverse weather. This study presents an improved lane-changing safety distance model by introducing the fuzzy evaluation quantification value of severe weather for the decision-making of lane-changing. In addition, the Gazis-Herman-Rothery model, an anchoring effect model and the full velocity difference model are refined. Based on a non-cooperative dynamic game (NCDG) model, a joint simulation environment is developed using Python. Simulation of urban mobility is conducted to simulate experiments. The simulation results show that using the improved lane changing model and NCDG model, the optimal reduction rates for NIC and ICS are 12.7% and 15.7%, respectively, and the optimal increase in successful lane changing frequency is 16.9%. Vehicles can optimise driving strategies in conflicts, improving efficiency and safety.

Keywords: severe weather; NCDG; non-cooperative dynamic game; lane-changing decision; SUMO.

DOI: 10.1504/IJVSMT.2026.152620

International Journal of Vehicle Systems Modelling and Testing, 2026 Vol.20 No.1, pp.25 - 49

Received: 24 Jan 2025
Accepted: 26 Apr 2025
Published online: 31 Mar 2026 *

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