Title: Development of multipath vulnerability analysis methodology for physical protection systems of complex nuclear facilities with incorporation of uncertainty in the parameters

Authors: Helen Mariam Tony; Archana Yadav; Alpana Goel

Addresses: Amity Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India ' Amity Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India ' Amity Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract: In an era of rapid technological advancements in nuclear and allied techniques, the significance of nuclear security and the implementation of robust physical protection systems for critical facilities cannot be overstated. As custodians of nuclear resources, ensuring the highest level of security is essential. Physical protection systems are designed, evaluated and implemented to safeguard nuclear and radiological materials and associated facilities against potential and emerging threats. This study focuses on improvising a methodology for estimating the risk associated with nuclear facilities by analysing multiple intrusion paths an adversary may attempt. The developed methodology, termed Multi-Path Adversary Probability Prediction System with incorporation of uncertainties, is applied here to assess the security of nuclear facilities, thereby enhancing the overall security framework. The layout and the corresponding adversary sequence diagram for a hypothetical nuclear facility are developed for performing multi-path adversary sequence analysis by Python code, with values of the physical protection systems elements such as, probability of detection and time delay obtained from literature.

Keywords: risk; security; physical protection system; ASD; adversary sequence diagram; MAPPS; multi-path analysis of physical protection system.

DOI: 10.1504/IJNEST.2025.150734

International Journal of Nuclear Energy Science and Technology, 2025 Vol.18 No.2, pp.77 - 92

Received: 16 Feb 2024
Accepted: 17 May 2025
Published online: 22 Dec 2025 *

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