Title: Studying the stock market behaviour under the lens of crude oil price and exchange rates – an artificial neural network approach on the fragile five nations

Authors: Raktim Ghosh; Ashish Kumar Sana; Bhaskar Bagchi

Addresses: Department of Commerce, Maharaja Srischandra College, Kolkata, West Bengal, India ' Department of Commerce, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, West Bengal 700073, India ' Department of Commerce, University of Gour Banga, Malda, West Bengal, India

Abstract: This study focuses on the stock market behaviour of the fragile five nations using the multilayer perceptron model under the artificial neural network through crude oil price and exchange rates. Though the concept of the Fragile five was developed in the year 2013, keeping in mind the occurrence of the global financial recession of 2008, which is also the foundation of the Fragile five, it is decided to consider the study period from January 1, 2008, to August 1, 2024. It is worth reporting that the exchange rate has greater relevance in terms of predictability. Uniqueness lies in studying amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and other global happenings, offering innovative insights. In the context of global turmoil, the fragile five nations face increased vulnerability, impacting energy costs, commodity prices, currency devaluation, and the global supply chain. MLP model features are tailored to address the challenges posed by these economies.

Keywords: stock market; fragile five; artificial neural network; crude oil prices; exchange rates.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAISC.2025.149628

International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing, 2025 Vol.9 No.2, pp.134 - 163

Received: 01 Sep 2024
Accepted: 21 Jul 2025
Published online: 07 Nov 2025 *

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