Title: Influence of macroeconomic variables on Indian commodity futures prices: case of agricultural commodities

Authors: Sonia Garg

Addresses: Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science and Technology, Hisar, Haryana, India

Abstract: The present study explores the long-run and short-run impacts of various macroeconomic variables on Indian agricultural commodity futures prices. To accomplish this purpose, the present study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings of the study show that, in the long run, inflation has a significant impact on kapas, mentha, and chana. Gross domestic product (GDP) has a significant influence on the futures prices of cotton and guar seed. The interest rate has a significant impact on kapas only. The exchange rate has a significant impact on kapas, mentha oil, and chana. Stock market prices (SP) have a significant influence on the futures prices of kapas and mentha oil.

Keywords: macroeconomic variables; commodity futures; India; autoregressive distributed lag; ARDL; agricultural commodities.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSOM.2025.148833

International Journal of Services and Operations Management, 2025 Vol.52 No.1, pp.61 - 81

Received: 30 Jan 2023
Accepted: 26 Jul 2023
Published online: 29 Sep 2025 *

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