Title: The dynamic relationship between the bond and CDS markets of emerging countries: copula-GARCH

Authors: Imen Daoued; Mohamed Imen Gallali

Addresses: LARIMRAF LR21ES29, ESCT, Manouba University, Campus Universitaire Manouba, 2010, Tunisia ' LARIMRAF LR21ES29, ESCT, Manouba University, Campus Universitaire Manouba, 2010, Tunisia

Abstract: This paper examines the interaction between sovereign bond credit spreads (BS) and credit default swap (CDS) premiums. We use ARDL models to test whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables, using daily data for the period October 2008 to November 2016 for 22 emerging market countries. To analyse the validity of the results of the Granger causality test, a test of the static copula model was applied to measure the interdependence of the variables. The empirical literature on copula and their use in financial dependence is extensive (see Joe et al., 2012), and they provide a new, alternative measurement technique.

Keywords: ARDL-ECM; lead-lag; statics copula; sovereign bond credit SPREADS; CDS premiums; price discovery; emerging markets; flight to quality; basis CDS-BCS; positive basis; negative basis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBD.2025.148675

International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, 2025 Vol.4 No.4, pp.281 - 307

Received: 21 Sep 2021
Accepted: 13 Jan 2022
Published online: 19 Sep 2025 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article