Title: The impact of rising international crude oil price on China's economy: an empirical analysis with CGE model

Authors: Ying Fan, Jian-Ling Jiao, Qiao-Mei Liang, Zhi-Yong Han, Yi-Ming Wei

Addresses: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. ' Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China. ' Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. ' National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing 100085, China. ' Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management (IPM), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), P.O. Box 8712, Beijing 100080, China

Abstract: Many studies, as well as historical events, indicate that oil price shocks affect the macro economy of a country. In this paper we build a Chinese Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with which we simulate the impact on the Chinese economy of international crude oil price when it rises by 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 50% and 100%. Simulation also identifies the effects of low/medium/high technological advances in the crude oil mining, petroleum and chemical and transportation sectors on fighting the risk of oil price shocks. The results indicate that international crude oil price has negative effects on Chinese real GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, amongst a range of economic indices. Technological advances have positive effects on fighting back the risk of oil price shocks, especially the technological advances in petroleum and chemicals, whilst the transportation sector has a greater effect on resisting oil price risk. An international oil price hike holds more disadvantages for rural residents| welfare. These results would be valuable reference information for policy makers.

Keywords: crude oil prices; CGE models; price risks; technological advances; China; economic impact; Chinese economy; computable general equilibrium model; simulation; oil price rises; risk management; rural areas.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2007.014864

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2007 Vol.27 No.4, pp.404 - 424

Published online: 13 Aug 2007 *

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